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Sir Isaac Newton (25 Dec 1642 - 20 Mar 1727) English physicist and mathematician who made seminal discoveries in several areas of science, and was the leading scientist of his era. Short biography of Sir Isaac Newton >>

Isaac Newton
“In experimental philosophy”

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Newton’s original telescope (source)

“In experimental philosophy, propositions gathered from phenomena by induction should be considered either exactly or very nearly true notwithstanding any contrary hypotheses, until yet other phenomena make such propositions either more exact or liable to exceptions.”

— Isaac Newton

4th Rule of Reasoning, from The Principia.

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Newton’s revisions newly included three Rules of Reasoning in the second (1713) edition of his Principia. In the third edition (1726), a fourth was added. As summarized by David B. Wilson, “Newton’s four rules of reasoning proceeded … from nature’s simplicity, to its uniformity, to its universality with inductive propositions being modified by contrary phenomena, not contrary hypotheses.”1

The 4th Rule is perhaps the most important of these Rules. Newton wrote his original in Latin. The English version shown above, is as newly translated by I. Bernard Cohen and Anne Whitman (1999).

The theory that best fits the data can be regarded as true, until proven otherwise.

Newton wants observable data to drive what becomes accepted wisdom, not the chatter of philosophers. Newton insists, that what is understood from data provided by observation can be provisionally accepted as the next starting point. Subsequent data from investigation may be used to support and refine that understanding. However, this further data may require revising the original understanding.

Evidence from tests are only sometimes decisive, by giving a clear indication of what is true or what is false. When a results exists, but other evidence appears to conflict, one conclusion may appear to be more likely to be true. Despite the uncertainty, that can still be used as the starting point for more investigation to resolve the conflict.

Newton was describing what we now know as the scientific method. The theory must fit the facts, never attempting to favour facts to fit the theory.

As Newton adds as an explanation after Rule 4:

“This rule should be followed, so that arguments based on induction may not be nullified by hypotheses.”

Experiment takes priority over speculation. 

In the original Latin, Rule 4 and the explanatory line are:

In philosophia experimentali, propositiones ex phænomenis per inductionem colledæ, non obstantibus contrariis hypothesibus, pro veris aut accurate aut quamproxime haberi debent, donec alia occurrerint phænomena, per quæ aut accuratiores reddantur aut exceptionibus obnoxiæ.

Hoc fieri debet ne argumentum inductionis tollatur per hypotheses.”

Referring to Newton's original manuscript, there is a crossed-out section which expanded on the above:

“If arguments based on hypotheses were to be admitted against inductions, then inductive arguments, on which the whole of experimental philosophy is based, could always be overturned by contrary hypotheses”2

Newton further amplified the meaning of this Rule 4 in his book The Opticks:

“And although the arguing from Experiments and Observations by Induction be no Demonstration of general Conclusions; yet it is the best way of arguing which the Nature of Things admits of, and may be looked upon as so much stronger, by how much the Induction is more general. And if no Exception occur from Phenomena, the Conclusion may be pronounced generally. But if at any time afterwards any Exception shall occur from Experiments, it may then begin to be pronounced with such Exceptions as occur.”3

Hence “Newton was approaching the empirical world in a sequence of approximations.”4

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Nature bears long with those who wrong her. She is patient under abuse. But when abuse has gone too far, when the time of reckoning finally comes, she is equally slow to be appeased and to turn away her wrath. (1882) -- Nathaniel Egleston, who was writing then about deforestation, but speaks equally well about the danger of climate change today.

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