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in the study area and the crops most consistent with these different income goals.
Maximize the Probability of Realizing a Selected Income Level
The minimum necessary income level chosen for the study area was 15,000 pesos per semester. This amount is one-half of the figure generally given as an acceptable income, and enough to support an average family for this short period of time. Table 20 gives the number of hectares required to earn 15,000 pesos with the indicated probability of attainment. The expected profits in Table 20 are taken from Table 34 in the appendix. These profit levels are the lowest that were considered acceptable for application in the risk model. The probabilities of realizing these profits were calculated from data given in Table 35 by summing the probability of occurrence of each yield-price combination that produced an acceptable profit. If production in the first semester were sufficient to yield the 30,000 pesos which satisfies the annual minimum necessary income, then this conservative approach could be abandoned and some income maximizing scheme adopted. However, if the first semester crop is poor, the program used in the first semester would be used again.
The analysis indicates that rice, sesame, and sorghum would each require about 20 hectares to provide 15,000 pesos per semester with close to an 80 percent chance of success. Sorghum offers the highest probability of attaining the necessary income level. However, if the farm is used for rice production, the probability of success for rice is perhaps not sufficiently lower (.78 for rice versus .83 for sorghum) to warrant 20 hectares of sorghum on an otherwise homogeneous crop area.